Evening Star Complete Guide
What is Evening Star?
The Evening Star is a premier three-candle bearish reversal pattern that signals the potential exhaustion of an uptrend. As described by Steve Nison, the pioneer of Japanese candlestick charting in the West, the pattern visually represents a transition from bullish dominance to bearish control. It consists of three distinct bars: a long bullish candle, a small-bodied 'star' that gaps higher, and a long bearish candle that closes well within the body of the first candle. The first day shows strong buying pressure. On the second day, the 'star' indicates a narrowing of the trading range and a balance between buyers and sellers; while a gap up is ideal, the key is the small real body. The third day confirms the reversal as prices drop significantly, erasing much of the gains from the first day. According to Thomas Bulkowski’s 'Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts,' the Evening Star is highly reliable, boasting a theoretical reversal rate of 72%. In his statistical testing, the pattern ranks 4th out of 103 candlestick types for overall performance in a bull market. Volume typically supports the validity of the pattern if it is higher on the third day than the second, indicating aggressive selling. However, Bulkowski notes that while the reversal is frequent, the subsequent price move may be limited depending on the broader market context. Traders often look for the third candle to close at least halfway into the first candle's body to confirm the strength of the bearish shift.
Identification Rules
- The first candle must be a long white (bullish) candle appearing within an established uptrend.
- The second candle must have a small real body (a star), and its body should gap above the first candle's body.
- The third candle must be a black (bearish) candle that closes at least halfway into the first candle's real body.
- The bodies of the first and second candles should not overlap, though shadows may.
Historical Win Rate Statistics
US
| Total Occurrences | 149 |
| T+5 Win Rate | 49.0% |
| T+20 Win Rate | 62.3% |
| T+20 Avg Return | 72.60% |
Recent Cases
| Symbol | Date | T+20 Return |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 2026-03-18 | -4.98% |
| AAPL | 2026-03-12 | -0.05% |
| NVDA | 2026-03-12 | -4.04% |
| AAPL | 2026-03-04 | -4.14% |
| AAPL | 2026-02-19 | 0.09% |
| MSFT | 2026-01-29 | -7.82% |
| AAPL | 2026-01-15 | 7.08% |
| NVDA | 2026-01-14 | -1.53% |
| MSFT | 2026-01-13 | -10.05% |
| AMZN | 2026-01-13 | 0.15% |
References
- Thomas N. Bulkowski (2005). Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
- Steve Nison (2001). Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques.
FAQ
How reliable is the Evening Star according to Bulkowski's data?
It is very reliable with a 72% theoretical reversal rate and ranks 4th out of 103 patterns for overall performance.
Does the color of the middle 'star' candle matter?
The color is less important than the small size of the body, but a bearish (red/black) star is slightly more potent.
Is a gap between the second and third candle required?
While a gap between the first and second bodies is essential, a gap between the second and third is rare and not strictly required for the pattern.
What role does volume play in this pattern?
Higher volume on the third (bearish) candle compared to the first two candles significantly increases the probability of a reversal.
Where should a stop-loss be placed when trading this pattern?
A standard stop-loss is placed just above the highest point of the second candle (the star).
More Analysis
Parts of this page (FAQ, introductions) are AI-assisted. Core data and statistics are algorithmically computed. All pattern definitions are human-reviewed.
Aviso: Esta página é baseada em dados de mercado públicos e análise técnica algorítmica. Não constitui aconselhamento de investimento.
Data source: EODHD · © 2026 KlineVision AI