二点天井 Complete Guide

一般的な目標株価の算出方法として、まずネックラインからパターンにおける最高値までの垂直距離を測定します。次に、測定した距離を、株価がネックラインを下抜けた地点から下方向に投影します。例えば、ネックラインから最高値までの距離が10ドルで、ネックラインを下抜けた価格が50ドルの場合、目標株価は40ドルとなります。

According to Thomas Bulkowski's research, the Double Top is a relatively reliable bearish reversal pattern. He found an average decline of approximately 19% after a confirmed breakdown. The pattern's failure rate, where the price reverses back above the neckline after a breakdown, is around 13%. Its performance rank among bearish reversal patterns is quite good, often placing it in the top half for post-breakdown declines.

Volume is a critical indicator for the Double Top. Ideally, the first peak should form on high or increasing volume, reflecting strong buying interest. The rally to the second peak should occur on noticeably lower volume, indicating a weakening of buying pressure and a lack of conviction. Finally, the decisive breakdown below the neckline should be accompanied by a significant surge in volume, confirming strong selling pressure and the pattern's validity.

The primary difference lies in the number of peaks. A Double Top features two distinct peaks at roughly the same price level, signaling a reversal. A Triple Top, as its name suggests, has three distinct peaks at approximately the same price level, separated by two troughs. Both are bearish reversal patterns, but a Triple Top is generally considered a stronger and more reliable reversal signal due to the repeated failure of buyers to push prices higher.

Yes, variations exist. The two peaks don't have to be at the exact same price; a slight tilt or difference of a few percentage points is acceptable, as long as the overall 'M' shape is clear. Sometimes, the second peak might be slightly lower than the first, indicating even weaker buying power. Also, the neckline doesn't have to be perfectly horizontal; it can be slightly sloped. The most crucial aspect remains the decisive breakdown below the established support level (neckline) on increased volume.