ブロードニング・トップ Complete Guide

According to Thomas Bulkowski's extensive research, Broadening Tops have a high probability of predicting a bearish reversal, with approximately 93% of breakouts occurring to the downside. This makes it a strong indicator for trend reversal, though its performance in meeting specific price targets is lower.

Volume during the formation of a Broadening Top tends to be erratic, but often shows an overall increase as the pattern develops. This is particularly noticeable on the downswings, reflecting increasing market participation, indecision, and growing distribution by sellers.

Based on Bulkowski's analysis, the average price decline after a confirmed downward breakout from a Broadening Top pattern is approximately 19%. It's important to note that this is an average, and actual declines can vary significantly.

While the minimum duration for recognition is often cited as 20 bars, Bulkowski's research suggests that Broadening Tops typically take at least three weeks to form. However, they can extend for several months, indicating a prolonged period of market indecision and increasing volatility.

A common pitfall is premature entry. The pattern's inherent volatility means prices can swing widely. It's crucial to wait for a confirmed breakout below the lower trendline. Additionally, throwbacks or pullbacks to the breakout level are common (occurring in about 66% of cases), which can mislead traders if not anticipated.