Estrella de la Mañana Complete Guide
What is Estrella de la Mañana?
The Morning Star is a three-day bullish reversal candlestick pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend. It visually represents a transition from bearish sentiment to bullish control. The pattern begins with a long-bodied bearish candle, reflecting strong selling pressure. On the second day, a 'star' forms—a small-bodied candle (either bullish, bearish, or a doji) that gaps below the previous day's body. This gap indicates a final exhaustion of sellers. The third day completes the pattern with a long bullish candle that closes well into the body of the first day's candle, ideally above the midpoint. According to Steve Nison, the gap between the first and second bodies is crucial, though a gap between the second and third bodies adds further confirmation. Thomas Bulkowski’s research in the 'Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts' indicates that the Morning Star is a highly reliable performer. In a bull market, it has a theoretical reversal rate of 78%. Bulkowski notes that the pattern performs best when the third day sees a significant surge in volume, confirming the influx of buyers. Historically, the Morning Star ranks 37th out of 103 candlestick patterns for overall performance. Traders often look for the third candle to close at least 50% into the first candle's body to confirm the reversal's strength. While the pattern is robust, its effectiveness increases when it occurs at established support levels or in conjunction with oversold RSI readings.
Identification Rules
- La primera vela debe ser una vela bajista (negra/roja) larga dentro de una tendencia bajista definida.
- The second candle must have a small body (a star) that gaps below the body of the first candle.
- The third candle must be a bullish (white/green) candle that closes at least halfway into the body of the first candle.
- The bodies of the first and second candles should not overlap, though shadows may.
Historical Win Rate Statistics
US
| Total Occurrences | 115 |
| T+5 Win Rate | 48.7% |
| T+20 Win Rate | 52.6% |
| T+20 Avg Return | 0.72% |
Recent Cases
| Symbol | Date | T+20 Return |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 2026-03-31 | 19.21% |
| NVDA | 2026-03-25 | 9.98% |
| AAPL | 2026-03-17 | 1.82% |
| MSFT | 2026-02-09 | -5.04% |
| AMZN | 2026-01-22 | -12.91% |
| AMZN | 2026-01-16 | -6.87% |
| AAPL | 2025-12-19 | -5.35% |
| NVDA | 2025-12-19 | 2.24% |
| AMZN | 2025-12-19 | 8.33% |
| MSFT | 2025-11-25 | -0.45% |
References
- Thomas N. Bulkowski (2005). Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
- Steve Nison (2001). Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques.
FAQ
¿Qué tan fiable es el patrón Morning Star según Bulkowski?
Bulkowski's data shows a 78% reversal rate in bull markets, ranking it 37th out of 103 patterns for overall performance.
Does the color of the middle 'star' matter?
Si bien el color es menos importante que la brecha, una estrella alcista (blanca/verde) generalmente se considera ligeramente más potente que una bajista.
¿Qué papel juega el volumen en este patrón?
Un alto volumen en el tercer día mejora significativamente la tasa de éxito y la magnitud del movimiento alcista subsiguiente.
¿Se requiere un gap entre la segunda y la tercera vela?
Nison prefiere que haya un hueco entre el segundo y el tercer cuerpo para mayor solidez, pero no es estrictamente necesario para que el patrón sea válido.
Where should a stop-loss be placed for this pattern?
A common technical placement for a stop-loss is just below the lowest low of the second candle (the star).
More Analysis
Parts of this page (FAQ, introductions) are AI-assisted. Core data and statistics are algorithmically computed. All pattern definitions are human-reviewed.
Aviso legal: Esta página se basa en datos de mercado públicos y análisis técnico algorítmico. No constituye asesoramiento de inversión.
Data source: EODHD · © 2026 KlineVision AI