Fallender Keil Complete Guide

What is Fallender Keil?

The Falling Wedge is a powerful bullish reversal pattern characterized by two converging trendlines that slope downward. Unlike a parallel channel, the upper resistance line descends at a steeper angle than the lower support line, creating a narrowing 'wedge' shape. This formation typically occurs after a prolonged downtrend, representing a period where sellers are still in control but are losing their aggressive momentum. As the price makes lower lows and lower highs, the contracting range indicates that the selling pressure is exhausting. According to Thomas Bulkowski’s 'Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns,' the falling wedge is a high-performance pattern. In a downward trend, it acts as a reversal approximately 68% of the time. Bulkowski notes an average rise of roughly 38% following an upward breakout in bull markets, making it one of the more reliable bullish setups. Volume is a critical secondary indicator; it typically trends downward as the pattern matures, reflecting a decrease in conviction among bears. A definitive breakout occurs when the price closes above the upper resistance line, ideally accompanied by a significant surge in volume. Technical analysts look for this breakout as a signal that the bulls have regained control. The pattern is considered complete when the price breaks the upper boundary, often leading to a move back toward the start of the formation. While highly reliable, traders should watch for 'throwbacks,' where the price returns to test the breakout level before continuing its upward trajectory.

Identification Rules

1. Two downward sloping trendlines that converge toward an apex.
2. Die obere Widerstandslinie muss steiler sein als die untere Unterstützungslinie.
3. Der Kurs muss jede Trendlinie mindestens zweimal berühren und dabei eine Reihe von tieferen Hochs und tieferen Tiefs bilden.
4. Ein bullisches Signal wird erst dann bestätigt, wenn der Kurs oberhalb der oberen Widerstandslinie schließt.

References

• Thomas N. Bulkowski (2005). Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
• Steve Nison (2001). Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques.

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