Bärisches Pennant Complete Guide

What is Bärisches Pennant?

The Bearish Pennant is a short-term continuation pattern that marks a brief pause in a strong downward move. It begins with a 'flagpole,' characterized by a sharp, nearly vertical price decline on heavy volume. Following this sell-off, the price enters a consolidation phase where the highs and lows converge, forming a small symmetrical triangle known as the pennant. According to Thomas Bulkowski in the 'Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns,' pennants are among the most reliable continuation structures, though they are short-lived, typically completing within one to three weeks. If the consolidation lasts longer than three weeks, the pattern may transition into a symmetrical triangle, which has different performance expectations. Volume is a critical component: it should be high during the formation of the flagpole, diminish significantly during the pennant's formation, and surge again upon the downward breakout. Bulkowski’s research indicates that bearish pennants in a bear market have an average decline of approximately 22% after the breakout. The pattern signals that sellers are temporarily catching their breath before pushing the price lower. Traders often look for a breakout below the lower trendline to confirm the resumption of the downtrend. The 'measured move' objective is calculated by taking the height of the flagpole and projecting it downward from the breakout point. While highly reliable, traders should be wary of 'false breakouts' and look for a close below support to confirm the move.

Identification Rules

1. Ein steiler, nahezu vertikaler Kursrückgang (die Flaggenstange) muss der Konsolidierungsphase vorausgehen.
2. Die Konsolidierung muss innerhalb von zwei konvergierenden Trendlinien enthalten sein, die ein kleines symmetrisches Dreieck bilden.
3. Das Muster ist kurzfristig und benötigt typischerweise etwa 15 Bars (1-3 Wochen) zur Vollendung.
4. Volume must decrease during the formation of the pennant and ideally increase on the breakout.

References

• Thomas N. Bulkowski (2005). Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
• Steve Nison (2001). Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques.

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